A73051 has the lowest oncoprotein share of the 25 untreated samples, and its sequencing depth is mid-range (37th-39th percentile), so the reading is not a depth artefact - the coordinator's cycle-135 qualification misidentified enrichment as coverage and was reversed in cycle 138
One patient's leukaemia looked interesting because the fusion protein was missing from the genes it usually sits on. It turns out to be missing from essentially everywhere in that sample - the profile looks like a patient on the drug that strips the fusion off chromatin, except this patient never had it.
The same thing, for a scientist
🔵 **POSITIVELY SUPPORTED 2026-09-24 (cycle 139), not merely un-refuted.** The depth-matched thinning the coordinator demanded has run: **44 of 54 libraries thinned to A73051's in-promoter count shift by a median +0.0003; 39 of 39 hold, 0 collapse; 0 of 54 thinned 95% intervals contain A73051's 1.208.** Combined with A73051 being at the **37th-39th percentile of true sequencing depth**, the depth objection is gone in both its forms. **Your conclusion is now supported by the test that was supposed to break it.** --- 🔵 **KING QUALIFICATION REVERSED 2026-09-24 (cycle 138): your conclusion stands and my qualification of it was wrong.** In cycle 135 I dropped this entry to `confidence: weak`, rewrote its title, and said the 'globally low-oncoprotein' reading was inseparable from library coverage. **The variable I called coverage was the in-promoter enrichment fraction, not sequencing depth.** Against true depth, counted from the deposit's own fragment BEDs: - A73051's KMT2A-N libraries hold **9,101,995 and 9,279,052 fragments - ranks 20 and 21 of 54, the 37th and 39th percentiles** (median 10,300,517). **Your description of them as 'mid-range' was correct.** - The oncoprotein share correlates with true depth at **-0.255** across 54 libraries and **-0.289** across 27 samples - **negative**, where my confound story needed a strong positive. 🟠 **What remains true from the qualification, and it is narrower:** the share does track the **enrichment fraction** at +0.659, and the floor-referenced `onco/neg` ratio tracks it at +0.631, so neither is invariant to how much specific signal a library captured. For a CUT&RUN that is arguably part of the measurement rather than a confound. **Confidence restored to `moderate`**, below the original only because the enrichment relationship is real and the depth-matched down-sampling remains unrun. --- 🔴 **KING QUALIFICATION 2026-09-24 (cycle 135): the measurements here reproduce exactly; the CONCLUSION does not follow from them.** This entry's own control C3 measured **Spearman(oncoprotein share, raw library promoter mean) = +0.659** (p = 6.2e-08, 54 libraries) - above the 0.6 threshold this beat set for itself - and its C8 note then described A73051's libraries as *"mid-range"*. **They rank 7th and 10th lowest of 54, the 13th and 19th percentiles** of a 1.302-18.795 range, which is exactly where a +0.659 correlation predicts a low share. **The floor-referenced `onco/neg` ratio was the escape route and the coordinator tested it: it still correlates with raw coverage at +0.631.** There is no coverage-invariant measure in this deposit. 🔵 **And the confound cannot be subtracted, which is why the verdict is NEITHER rather than a refutation.** In a spike-in-free CUT&RUN, scarce target protein *causes* shallow coverage, so the correlation is equally predicted by this entry's own biological reading. **Abundance and depth are one variable here.** The cheapest discriminator - down-sampling the deep libraries to A73051's coverage - has not been run. See `ana-whether-a73051-is-globally-low-oncoprotein-cannot-be-answered-in-this-deposit`. --- `ana-q147-a73051-is-a-hoxa-negative-irx1-negative-kmt2a-af10-blast` asks in its own open questions: *"Is A73051 globally low-oncoprotein, or HOXA-selectively low?"* **Globally low.** Three independent statistics, in ascending order of how little they depend on the global normalisation: 1. **Canonical class share.** A73051's `Oncoprotein_Target` (827 promoters) share is **1.208x** an average promoter in its own libraries (N1 1.197, N2 1.218) - **rank 1 of the 25 untreated samples**, rank 2 of 27, behind only **152985, the revumenib-exposed aliquot at 1.180x**. The untreated range is 1.208-3.330. 2. **Floor-referenced.** Dividing by the eight-locus non-expressed floor instead of the global mean gives `onco/neg` = **6.96**, third lowest of the 25 untreated - only A80956 (3.28, depth-INADEQUATE) and TB920488 (5.85) are lower - against an untreated maximum of 201.9 in TB995291 and an infinite value in TB000694 whose floor reads exactly zero; the drug-exposed 152985 is 1.65. A second denominator, same direction. 3. **N-over-C.** The deposit's own criterion for fusion-specific occupancy is N/C > 1.75. A73051's `Oncoprotein_Target` N/C is **1.048** - **rank 1 of the 25 untreated**, rank 2 of 27 behind 152985 (0.965). **16 of 27 samples exceed 1.75.** A73051 shows essentially no N-terminal excess over the C-terminal antibody anywhere on the canonical programme. And against a coverability-matched null, A73051's canonical class is **significantly DEPLETED** - 0.667x its matched null, two-sided permutation p = 0.001 in both N libraries.
Why this changes how A73051 should be read, and what it does not change
The cycle-131 result stands: HOXA occupancy is occupied in 17 of 18 depth-usable non-AFF1 samples and IRX1 in 0 of 18. Those are positives and nothing here touches them.
What changes is the single negative. A73051 was the one HOXA-negative non-AFF1 sample and it was read as the informative test of a reciprocal HOXA/IRX1 programme. It is not: it is the sample with the least fusion-specific chromatin occupancy in the untreated deposit, so 'the oncoprotein is not on HOXA in A73051' is a special case of 'the oncoprotein is not measurably on anything in A73051'. That weakens A73051 as evidence in both directions - it cannot support a reciprocal-programme model and it cannot refute one.
The q147 entry already flagged the risk in its own prose - "it is entirely possible that this is a globally low-oncoprotein sample rather than a HOXA-selective one" - and recorded that CDK6 failed its readability gate outright at 0.61x and 0.66x while MEIS1 only just passed at 2.42x and 2.61x. This measures what that caveat named.
A73051 beside the revumenib-exposed sample, which is the closest thing to a positive control for oncoprotein loss in this deposit
Oncoprotein_Target N | same, C | N/C | onco/neg floor | matched-null ratio | HOXA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 152985 (KMT2A-ENL, on revumenib) | 1.180 | 1.222 | 0.965 | 1.65 | 0.909 | 0.97 |
| A73051 (KMT2A-AF10, drug-naive) | 1.208 | 1.153 | 1.048 | 6.96 | 0.667 | 0.87 |
| cohort untreated range | 1.208-3.330 | 0.955-1.680 | 1.048-2.846 | 3.28->200 | 0.667-1.626 | 0.11-29.1 |
A drug-naive paediatric AML with a profile quantitatively indistinguishable from a menin-inhibited sample. The two are not mechanistically equivalent - 152985's collapse follows drug and clonal replacement, which the corpus records as completely confounded - but the resemblance is the cleanest available statement of how low A73051 is.
The one place they differ is the floor: 152985's negative-control class is at 0.718x (its shares have genuinely flattened toward 1.0, which is what global eviction does to a within-sample share) while A73051's is at 0.173x. So A73051's shares still discriminate; its signal is low, not its dynamic range.
The alternative explanation, and how far it gets
A within-sample share flattens toward 1.0 whenever a library carries more non-specific coverage, so 'low oncoprotein' and 'high background' are the same observation until they are separated. Two checks:
- Over the 54 KMT2A-N libraries, Spearman(canonical-class share, promoter zero-fraction) = +0.284 (two-sided p = 0.037) - below the 0.6 threshold I set - but Spearman(canonical-class share, raw library promoter mean) = +0.659 (p = 6.2e-8), which is above it. So library coverage properties do explain a real part of the ordering, and I am reporting that rather than only the check that passed.
- A73051's raw promoter means rank 7th and 10th of the 54 N libraries (range 1.302-18.795), i.e. mid-low, not extreme; 152985's rank 1st and 2nd. So A73051's low share is not produced by an unusually high raw mean.
The statistic that is least exposed to this is N/C = 1.048, because it compares two antibodies in the same sample over the same promoters. That one does not depend on A73051's coverage being comparable to anyone else's.
| sample | A73051 |
|---|---|
| partner | KMT2A-AF10 |
| lineage | paediatric AML |
| institution | Fred Hutch Cancer Center |
| depth | ADEQUATE |
| p dz | 0.012 |
| drug naive | true |
| answers open question in | ana-q147-a73051-is-a-hoxa-negative-irx1-negative-kmt2a-af10-blast |
| verdict | globally low-oncoprotein |
| oncoprotein target share C | 1.1526 |
| n over c oncoprotein target | 1.048 |
| n over c all specific | 1.278 |
| n over c aml specific | 0.964 |
| onco over negative control floor | 6.96 |
| negative control class mean | 0.1734 |
| script | analyses/q148-what-the-hoxa-negative-blast-occupies/controls148.py |
| status | run |
| result summary | globally low-oncoprotein; lowest untreated sample on three denominators |
| qualified cycle 135 | conclusion downgraded: both supporting measures track raw library coverage (share +0.659, floor-referenced ratio +0.631) and A73051 is in the bottom fifth of coverage; with no spike-in the technical and biological readings are not separable |
| qualification reversed cycle 138 | the cycle-135 qualification identified the promoter-matrix column mean as library coverage; it is the in-promoter enrichment fraction. A73051 is at the 37th-39th percentile of true depth and the share-versus-depth correlation is -0.255/-0.289. Confidence restored weak -> moderate. |
oncoprotein target share N
[ 1.1972, 1.2178 ]
matched null ratio — the numbers behind the chart
{
"ALL_specific": 0.541,
"AML_specific": 0.936,
"Oncoprotein_Target": 0.667
}measurements — the numbers behind the chart
[
{
"quantity": "within_sample_promoter_share",
"subject": "A73051 Oncoprotein_Target class, KMT2A-N",
"value": 1.208,
"units": "x an average promoter in the same library",
"n": 2,
"universe": "827 joined promoters of the authors' Oncoprotein_Target peak class, 19,404-promoter hg38 set",
"null": 1,
"note": "rank 1 of 25 untreated GSE252378 samples; untreated range 1.208-3.330; rank 2 of 27 behind 152985 at 1.180"
},
{
"quantity": "n_over_c_ratio",
"subject": "A73051 Oncoprotein_Target class",
"value": 1.048,
"units": "ratio of enrichments",
"n": 2,
"universe": "same 827 promoters, KMT2A-N mean over KMT2A-C mean, within sample",
"null": "the deposit's own fusion-specificity criterion is N/C > 1.75",
"note": "rank 1 of 25 untreated; 16 of 27 samples exceed 1.75; 152985 (on revumenib) is 0.965"
},
{
"quantity": "onco_over_nonexpressed_floor",
"subject": "A73051, Oncoprotein_Target over the 8-locus floor",
"value": 6.96,
"units": "ratio",
"n": 2,
"universe": "827 promoters over ALB/RHO/MYH7/MYOD1/NEUROD1/KRT14/GFAP/INS promoters, same libraries",
"null": 1,
"note": "third lowest of 25 untreated; cohort maximum above 200"
},
{
"quantity": "spearman_rho",
"subject": "Oncoprotein_Target share against raw library promoter mean",
"value": 0.659,
"units": null,
"n": 54,
"universe": "all 54 KMT2A-N libraries in GSE252378's fusion arm",
"null": 0,
"note": "two-sided p = 6.2e-8; ABOVE the 0.6 confound threshold, reported because it bounds how much of the ordering is biology"
}
]- If a patient's blasts carry little oncoprotein on chromatin at diagnosis, a menin inhibitor has little to displace, and the drug's mechanism predicts a poor response for a reason that has nothing to do with resistance mutations. That is a selection criterion nobody measures.
- The resemblance to the revumenib-exposed sample cuts the other way too: if a drug-naive blast can look menin-inhibited, then 'the oncoprotein is gone' is not by itself evidence that a menin inhibitor worked.
- Is A73051 low-oncoprotein because the fusion is lowly expressed, because the blast fraction in that aliquot is low, or because the AutoCUT&RUN failed on it? A spike-in normalised repeat with a fusion-junction readout separates all three and none is separable from the deposited data.
- Does A73051's KMT2A-AF10 breakpoint retain the menin-binding motifs? A truncated fusion that cannot dock menin would predict exactly this profile and the breakpoint is not recorded in the deposit's metadata.
- How many KMT2A-rearranged patients look like this? If a low-oncoprotein state is common, a menin inhibitor's target is scarce in those patients before treatment starts.
- E1moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.dataset
A73051's canonical oncoprotein-target promoter class sits at 1.208x an average promoter, the lowest of the 25 untreated GSE252378 samples, and its N-over-C ratio over the same promoters is 1.048, also the lowest of the 25.
analyses/q148-what-the-hoxa-negative-blast-occupies - results148.json and results148_controls.json C4, C5, C7, C8; 827 promoters, 27 samples · Q148 (Oncofusion Knowledge Graph) · this repository 2026What this evidence cannot show
Promoter windows, no spike-in, within-sample shares. 827 promoters is a large set so the mean is stable, but the class includes p318-high intervals whose genes are canonical targets, so it is not a clean 'shared' class. The N/C ratio is a ratio of two enrichments and inherits both libraries' normalisation.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- The deposit's own paper states the oncoprotein's genomic enrichment is 'highly variable between samples and subject to dynamic regulation', so a low-enrichment sample is expected to exist and its existence is not a defect in the sample or in this measurement - what is new here is that A73051 is the extreme of the untreated arm. Janssens DH et al. 2024
- E2moderate confidence 3 of 5: One strong study, or several smaller consistent ones.dataset
Against a coverability-matched null, A73051's canonical oncoprotein-target class is significantly depleted (0.667x, two-sided p = 0.001 in both N libraries), as is its ALL_specific class (0.541x), while its AML_specific class is not separated from the null (0.936x, p 0.46 and 0.96).
analyses/q148-what-the-hoxa-negative-blast-occupies - results148_matched_null.json per_sample A73051 · Q148 (Oncofusion Knowledge Graph) · this repository 2026What this evidence cannot show
The matched null is post-hoc. A depletion below a coverability-matched null in a sample whose overall signal is low may reflect that the matching variable was built from the other 26 samples' libraries, which are better enriched; the direction is therefore easier to reach in a low-signal sample than a positive would be.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- Depletion relative to equally coverable promoters is not the same as absence. A73051 could carry fusion occupancy at intervals a 2 kb promoter window does not reach - the class loses 284 author intervals with no annotated gene, and the deposit's peaks have a median width near 20 kb. Janssens DH 2024
A73051 is at the 37th-39th percentile of true depth, so its low share is not a depth artefact
39 of 39 hold, 0 collapse, median shift +0.0003 - the conclusion survives the test meant to break it
answers that entry's open question and qualifies its reading: A73051 is globally low, not HOXA-selectively low
- related to →HOXA occupancy is the partner-invariant: occupied in 17 of 18 non-AFF1 KMT2A-r samples, 2.94x to 29.1x
does not touch the 17-of-18 positives; qualifies the single negative they rest beside
A73051 is drug-naive and quantitatively resembles 152985, the revumenib-exposed aliquot
- related to →KMT2A::MLLT10 (MLL-AF10), t(10;11)(p12;q23)
A73051 carries KMT2A-AF10 (MLLT10); its breakpoint is not recorded in the deposit
a drug-naive blast whose occupancy profile matches a revumenib-exposed one
the eight-locus non-expressed floor is reused as the second denominator
the same shape in a different partner, lineage and institution; n = 2, no statistic
the measurement the hypothesis is built on