The anchor-matched ranking, run: the KMT2A exon-11 CTCF anchor is rank 58 of 1,625 anchors matched on baseline strength - the 3.6th percentile - and the matched MEDIAN anchor also falls to 0.63x, so 'CTCF falls only at the KMT2A anchor' is refuted while 'the KMT2A anchor loses more than most' survives weakly
also called the refuting experiment the claim asked for · rank 58 of 1,625 · 12,443 anchors, median 0.70x
Last cycle this project found that a loop-anchor protein falls off the KMT2A gene when one enzyme is removed and does not fall off at eleven other places it checked - but none of those eleven was a loop anchor. Compared against twelve thousand real loop anchors of its own strength the KMT2A anchor loses more protein than about 96 of every 100, while the typical matched anchor still loses a third and three hundred of them lose more than half, so the effect is stronger here than average rather than unique to this gene.
The same thing, for a scientist
`mechanism-kdm3b-depletion-lowers-ctcf-only-at-the-kmt2a-anchor` named its own refuting experiment and predicted it would fail: *"the paper's own 17,077 lost CTCF peaks make 'not locus-specific' the likely outcome."* **It was right.** The design was written to disk before any signal value was read [E1]. CTCF anchors were called from **Gray 2023's own two siCT control tracks** - never an external peak list - as local maxima of the 200 bp grid above 3x the track's own genome mean, with a 4x summit floor, a both-replicates-above-2x reproducibility filter, a 1,000 bp fixed window matching the 1,048 bp *KMT2A* element, and 2 kb summit merging. **12,443 anchors, chr1-chr22 and chrX** [E2]. **Reproduction control first.** The same pipeline returns **0.301x at canonical exon 11, 0.319x at the summit window, 0.401x over the 1,048 bp element and 1.021x at the DCAL cut point** - against the published 0.30 / 0.32 / 0.40 / 1.02 [E2]. The pipeline is measuring the same thing the claim measured. **THE RANKING.** The *KMT2A* anchor's own summit bin is hg19 chr11:118,359,400 = **GRCh38 chr11:118,488,685**, 9 bp from the independently measured summit 118,488,694 and inside its own 200 bp bin. Baseline strength S = **4.92x**, the **91.7th percentile** of anchor strength - strong, not top-tier. Ratio R = **0.396x** [E2]. | matched set | n | rank | percentile | matched median R | n at R<=0.5 | n at R<=0.4 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **S within +/-10%** (primary) | 1,625 | **58** | **3.57%** | **0.633** | **308** | 64 | | nearest 500 in S | 500 | 22 | 4.40% | 0.622 | 100 | 24 | | strength decile 10 | 1,245 | 61 | 4.90% | 0.615 | 262 | 64 | | all 12,443 anchors | 12,443 | 258 | 2.07% | 0.696 | 1,436 | 280 | Stable at every peak threshold tested (T = 2.5, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 -> percentile 3.57-3.58%) [E2]. **The pre-declared bias control disagrees, and it is the one this design committed to carry.** Selecting anchors on high control signal and then dividing by that same signal drives R below 1 by regression to the mean. Calling anchors and measuring S from control **rep1 only** and using control **rep2 only** as the denominator gives KMT2A R = **0.586x at the 31.9th percentile** of 185 matched anchors (matched median 0.685) [E2]. **The two answers differ because the two control replicates disagree two-fold at this element** - 9.24x and 4.69x of chr11 mean at exon 11 - so the four per-replicate ratios there span **0.20x to 0.50x** [E3]. The limiting factor is the precision of the *KMT2A* estimate, not the null. **Verdict against the criteria declared in advance.** *"CTCF falls ONLY at the KMT2A anchor"* is **refuted** in every analysis: **15-19% of matched anchors fall to 0.5x or below**, the matched median is 0.62-0.70 and not 1.0, and **84.6% of all 12,443 anchors sit at or below 0.9x**. *"The KMT2A anchor is exceptional in degree"* is **weakened to borderline**: 3.6th percentile primary, 31.9th under the bias control. And **the locus-address conclusion does not survive** - the CTCF arrow is genome-wide too, so neither arrow of the published chain carries a locus label. RPE cells; nothing haematopoietic and nothing rearranged.
The distribution, which is the actual finding
The published entry contrasted 0.30x at KMT2A with 0.89-1.21x at eleven other intervals. Ten of those eleven are gene bodies or 1-2 kb promoter windows, not CTCF anchors, and a gene body averages tens of kilobases of mostly non-anchor sequence. Among real anchors nothing sits near 1.0:
| threshold | anchors | share of 12,443 |
|---|---|---|
| R <= 0.9 | 10,521 | 84.6% |
| R <= 0.7 | 6,325 | 50.8% |
| R <= 0.5 | 1,436 | 11.5% |
| R <= 0.5 and both siKDM3B reps below both controls | 1,401 | 11.3% |
| R <= 0.4 | 280 | 2.3% |
| R <= 0.3 | 20 | 0.16% |
Median R over all anchors is 0.696. There is a monotone strength trend - decile medians run 0.779, 0.751, 0.731, 0.731, 0.714, 0.694, 0.672, 0.653, 0.640, 0.615 from weakest to strongest - which is exactly the confound the eleven hand-picked intervals could not address and the reason the matching was pre-declared. Stronger anchors lose proportionally more CTCF, so any comparison that does not match on baseline strength will overstate a strong anchor's specialness.
The KMT2A anchor is the 258th most CTCF-losing of 12,443 and the eight strongest losses are at chr4:84,566,000, chr1:85,575,200, chr17:28,626,200, chrX:17,708,200, chr9:112,666,000, chr2:107,159,400, chr19:17,607,200 and chr11:8,241,000 (hg19), all with both siKDM3B replicates below both controls and R = 0.21-0.28 2. None is at KMT2A, and none has been proposed as a fragile site. The full ranked list of 12,443 anchors is persisted as anchors.tsv and the top 300 are in results.json, so the identities are re-derivable rather than only their count.
Against the paper's own number. PMID 37788669 reports 17,077 CTCF peaks losing intensity on KDM3B depletion. This analysis counts 10,521 of 12,443 called anchors at or below 0.9x. The two figures are not the same quantity - the paper called peaks with a peak caller on presumably the same libraries and applied a statistical test, while this calls local maxima of a deposited ratio track above a fixed fold cut - but they are the same order of magnitude and they point the same way. The claim under test was inconsistent with a number printed in the paper it cites, and its own counter-evidence field said so.
What the design committed to in advance, and how it turned out
design.py was written to disk before any signal value was read, and it pre-declared the verdict bands 1:
REFUTED p > 5%. WEAKENED 1% < p <= 5%. SURVIVES p <= 1% and the matched distribution concentrated near 1.0. And independent of rank: if >= 50 matched anchors have R <= 0.5, the word 'only' is false regardless of where KMT2A ranks.
| pre-declared test | result | band |
|---|---|---|
| primary M1 percentile | 3.57% | WEAKENED |
| pre-declared bias control | 31.9% | REFUTED |
| >= 50 matched anchors at R <= 0.5 | 308 (primary M1), 100 (M2), 262 (M3), 76 (split M2) | 'only' is FALSE |
| matched distribution concentrated near 1.0 | median 0.62-0.70 | fails the SURVIVES condition |
| T sensitivity 2.5 / 3.0 / 4.0 / 5.0 | 3.57 / 3.57 / 3.57 / 3.58% | not threshold-dependent |
The design also said: "If the two disagree, the split-replicate answer is the one carried." They disagree, so the carried headline is the 31.9th percentile and the refutation. But the reason they disagree was not anticipated by that sentence: the split analysis is dominated by a single-element two-fold disagreement between the two control replicates, not by regression to the mean across the population 3. Swapping a two-replicate denominator for a one-replicate denominator also adds independent noise to every anchor's R, which compresses the whole distribution and makes everything look less extreme. So the split-replicate percentile is conservative by construction and the primary is optimistic by construction, and the truth about this anchor's rank is bracketed between the 3.6th and the 31.9th percentile and cannot be narrowed with n = 2 versus n = 2. That is the honest result and it is a statement about the data, not about the claim.
What would narrow it: a spike-in-normalised CTCF ChIP with n >= 4 per arm in the same cells, or the paper's own peak-level statistics, which are not in the deposit.
What this does to the entry under test, and to the hypothesis beside it
mechanism-kdm3b-depletion-lowers-ctcf-only-at-the-kmt2a-anchor should be amended, not withdrawn. Its measurements are exactly reproducible; what does not survive is the inference drawn from eleven non-anchor controls. Specifically, and reported here for the coordinator because this beat does not own that entry:
- The title's word
onlyis false and should become something like "more than at eleven non-anchor intervals, and more than 96% of strength-matched anchors". data.the_correctionsays the CTCF arrow is "narrow at the intervals tested", which is true and already correctly hedged. The summary_expert sentence "The locus specificity of this mechanism therefore lives at the CTCF step, not at the mark step" is the sentence that fails, because the CTCF step is not locus-specific either: 84.6% of anchors move.data.the_check_that_would_refute_itshould be updated from "NOT RUN by this beat" to name this analysis and its numbers.confidence_overallshould staymoderateor drop, and the firstopen_question- "Do hundreds of other CTCF anchors lose CTCF to the same degree?" - is now answered: 1,436 at or below 0.5x, 280 at or below 0.4x, 20 at or below 0.3x.
hyp-the-kmt2a-anchor-is-hypersensitive-not-uniquely-targeted is CONFIRMED on its own terms. Its first prediction was: "Ranking every CTCF anchor in Gray's own control tracks by siKDM3B/control ratio puts KMT2A exon 11 in the top percentile of a CONTINUOUS distribution with hundreds of anchors below 0.5x - not as an outlier separated from a bulk near 1.0x." Measured: a continuous distribution, 1,436 anchors below 0.5x, bulk median 0.696, KMT2A at the 2.07th percentile overall. Its falsifier - "the bulk of comparable-strength anchors sit near 1.0x and KMT2A is a separated outlier" - did not fire. The hypothesis's prior of 0.45 should rise. Its remaining predictions, about motif score, cohesin load and CpG methylation at the anchor, are untouched by this analysis and are still the route to a material basis.
| script | analyses/q111-ctcf-anchor-matched-ranking/run.py |
|---|---|
| pre registration | analyses/q111-ctcf-anchor-matched-ranking/design.py |
| results | analyses/q111-ctcf-anchor-matched-ranking/results.json |
| persisted identities | analyses/q111-ctcf-anchor-matched-ranking/anchors.tsv (all 12,443 anchors with chrom, summit, window, S, R, consistency flag) plus anchors_S.npy and anchors_R.npy; rule 90 - the members of the set are persisted, not only its size |
| status | run |
| run date | 2026-09-22 |
| series | GSE210480 |
| n anchors called | 12443 |
| anchor definition | local maximum of the mean of the two normalised siCT control tracks on the file's own 200 bp grid, with peak threshold 3.0x the track's genome mean, summit floor 4.0x, both control replicates >= 2.0x at the summit bin, a fixed 1,000 bp window (summit bin +/- 2 bins), and summits within 2 kb merged keeping the stronger |
| localization | chromatin, 12,443 CTCF anchor windows on chr1-chr22 and chrX; an occupancy comparison that asserts nothing about protein localisation |
| subnuclear localization | not measured. CTCF anchors imply loop and TAD-boundary positions, but no imaging or Hi-C was read and no subnuclear position is claimed for any anchor here |
| cell type | hTERT-immortalised human retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells - epithelial, non-haematopoietic, no KMT2A rearrangement. Every number in this entry is an RPE number. |
| cell state | asynchronous proliferating culture 72 h after control or KDM3B siRNA transfection; no drug, damage or differentiation arm, and no siG9A or double-knockdown CTCF arm exists in the series |
| epigenetic readout | CTCF ChIP-over-control occupancy at 200 bp resolution, genome-wide, compared between control and KDM3B-depleted arms at 12,443 control-derived anchors matched on baseline occupancy |
| shown for fusion | Not shown for any fusion. All measurements are in unrearranged RPE; no fusion-bearing cell was assayed and no fusion protein is involved. |
| absence class | measured-not-analysed |
| cost tier | low - four bigWigs read by HTTP range request, about twenty minutes of streaming, nothing downloaded to disk |
| absence class note | MIGRATED 2026-09-23, mechanically and not by judgement: the class string's own first word is this token. The field previously held the whole verdict as free text and that string is preserved here verbatim because it says more than the token can: 'measured-not-analysed - the analysis existed as a named open question in the entry under test and the data had been public since 2022' |
files used
[ "GSM6431023", "GSM6431025", "GSM6431019", "GSM6431021" ]
kmt2a anchor
{
"summit_bin_start_hg19": 118359400,
"summit_grch38": 118488685,
"bp_from_the_independently_measured_summit_118488694": 9,
"window_hg19": "chr11:118,359,000-118,360,000",
"baseline_strength_S": 4.916,
"S_percentile_among_all_anchors": 0.917,
"ratio_R": 0.396,
"per_track_window_means_normalised": {
"GSM6431023_control": 6.507,
"GSM6431025_control": 3.325,
"GSM6431019_siKDM3B": 1.708,
"GSM6431021_siKDM3B": 2.19
},
"both_kd_below_both_ctrl": true
}matched sets — the numbers behind the chart
{
"M1_S_within_10pct": {
"n": 1625,
"rank": 58,
"percentile": 0.0357,
"median_R": 0.633,
"iqr_R": [
0.531,
0.751
],
"n_R_le_0.5": 308,
"n_R_le_0.4": 64,
"n_R_le_0.3": 5,
"S_range": [
4.425,
5.407
]
},
"M2_nearest_500_in_S": {
"n": 500,
"rank": 22,
"percentile": 0.044,
"median_R": 0.622,
"n_R_le_0.5": 100,
"n_R_le_0.4": 24
},
"M3_strength_decile_10": {
"n": 1245,
"rank": 61,
"percentile": 0.049,
"median_R": 0.615,
"n_R_le_0.5": 262,
"n_R_le_0.4": 64,
"S_range": [
4.784,
14.056
]
},
"ALL": {
"n": 12443,
"rank": 258,
"percentile": 0.0207,
"median_R": 0.696,
"iqr_R": [
0.58,
0.827
]
}
}genome wide loss counts
{
"n_R_le_0.9": 10521,
"n_R_le_0.7": 6325,
"n_R_le_0.5": 1436,
"n_R_le_0.5_and_both_reps_consistent": 1401,
"n_R_le_0.4": 280,
"n_R_le_0.3": 20,
"paper_reports_for_comparison": "17,077 CTCF peaks losing intensity, of which 1,005 KDM3B co-occupied (PMID 37788669) - a different quantity computed a different way, same order of magnitude, same direction"
}strength trend decile medians of R
[ 0.779, 0.751, 0.731, 0.731, 0.714, 0.694, 0.672, 0.653, 0.64, 0.615 ]
split replicate bias control
{
"calling_and_S_from": "GSM6431023",
"ratio_denominator": "GSM6431025",
"n_anchors": 9851,
"kmt2a_R": 0.586,
"M1": {
"n": 185,
"rank": 59,
"percentile": 0.319,
"median_R": 0.685
},
"ALL": {
"n": 9851,
"rank": 2925,
"percentile": 0.297
},
"why_it_moves": "the two control replicates differ two-fold at this element, so the denominator choice changes the KMT2A ratio from 0.300 (rep1 alone) through 0.396 (mean) to 0.586 (rep2 alone); and a one-replicate denominator adds independent noise to every anchor's R, compressing the distribution and making everything look less extreme"
}threshold sensitivity — the numbers behind the chart
{
"2.5": 0.0357,
"3.0": 0.0357,
"4.0": 0.0357,
"5.0": 0.0358
}reproduction control — the numbers behind the chart
{
"exon11_canonical": {
"measured": 0.301,
"published": 0.3
},
"ctcf_summit_pm250": {
"measured": 0.319,
"published": 0.32
},
"element_ctcf_cluster": {
"measured": 0.401,
"published": 0.4
},
"cut_point_pm250": {
"measured": 1.021,
"published": 1.02
},
"kmt2a_gene_90kb": {
"measured": 0.956,
"published": "not reported"
}
}verdict
{
"only_at_the_kmt2a_anchor": "REFUTED - 15-19% of strength-matched anchors fall to 0.5x or below, the matched median is 0.62-0.70 rather than 1.0, and 84.6% of all 12,443 anchors are at or below 0.9x",
"exceptional_in_degree": "WEAKENED to a range - 3.6th percentile in the primary matched analysis, 31.9th under the pre-declared bias control, bracketed and not narrowable at n = 2 per arm",
"the_locus_address_sits_on_the_ctcf_arrow": "DOES NOT SURVIVE - the CTCF arrow is genome-wide too, so neither the mark arrow nor the CTCF arrow carries a locus label in these data",
"hyp_the_kmt2a_anchor_is_hypersensitive_not_uniquely_targeted": "CONFIRMED on its own stated prediction - a continuous distribution with 1,436 anchors below 0.5x and KMT2A at the 2.07th percentile, not an outlier separated from a bulk near 1.0x; its falsifier did not fire"
}KING CORRECTION - the GRCh38 lift of the comparator anchor
{
"THE_STATED_GRCh38_COORDINATE_IS_WRONG": "This beat states 'hg19 chr11:8,241,000 = GRCh38 chr11:8,370,285'. That is wrong. 8,370,285 - 8,241,000 = 129,285, which is the GRCh37->GRCh38 offset at the KMT2A locus at 118.4 Mb; it was applied here as though the offset were constant along chromosome 11, and it is not.",
"the_correct_lift_measured_by_the_king_2026_09_22": {
"hg19 chr11:8,241,000": "GRCh38 chr11:8,219,453, offset -21,547",
"controls proving the offset varies": {
"hg19 chr11:8,000,000": "GRCh38 7,978,453, offset -21,547",
"hg19 chr11:50,000,000": "GRCh38 49,978,464, offset -21,536",
"hg19 chr11:118,358,874 (the KMT2A element)": "GRCh38 118,488,159, offset +129,285"
},
"so": "the offset is locally constant but varies by more than 150 kb along chromosome 11 and changes sign; a single locus's offset is never transferable to another locus",
"source": "Ensembl REST map/human/GRCh37/11:start..end:1/GRCh38, filtered on seq_region_name == '11'"
},
"NOTHING_MEASURED_IS_AFFECTED": "The GSE210480 CTCF bigWigs declare exactly hg19 and the whole 12,443-anchor ranking was computed in hg19. Every strength, ratio, rank and percentile in this beat stands. The error is confined to a convenience coordinate quoted for the reader.",
"AND_THE_COMPARATOR_IS_NOW_ANNOTATED_AT_THE_CORRECT_POSITION": {
"why_this_is_here": "this beat's own caveat said 'the chr11:8,241,000 comparator has not been annotated: what gene or element it sits in was not looked up'. It has now been looked up - at the corrected position, because the first attempt used the wrong one.",
"GRCh38 chr11:8,219,453 overlaps": "lncRNA ENSG00000307368, 8,202,758-8,224,376",
"LMO1 (protein_coding, 8,224,309-8,268,807)": "4,856 bp away",
"other features within 50 kb": "ENSG00000307401 lncRNA 9,812 bp; ENSG00000307386 lncRNA 12,986 bp; RIC3-DT lncRNA 39,206 bp",
"THE_COMPARATOR_IS_NOT_INERT": "LMO1 is an established T-lineage oncogene and neuroblastoma susceptibility gene, and the anchor sits 4.9 kb from it inside a lncRNA. So this is NOT the featureless intergenic control the proposal implies. It remains a valid STRENGTH-matched comparator - that was the matching criterion and it holds - but 'a strong anchor that loses more CTCF than KMT2A and has no disease relevance' is not something this annotation supports.",
"what_is_still_unchecked": "the beat's other caveat stands and is not addressed here: whether this anchor is in a blacklist region or a segmental duplication was not tested, and a strong anchor with a large apparent change is what a blacklist artefact looks like"
},
"found_by": "the king, while running this beat's own recommended next step"
}- This analysis makes the prophylactic-G9a-inhibitor argument worse, not better, and that is the main thing it changes for an intervention. If 84.6% of CTCF anchors in the genome lose occupancy when this axis is perturbed, then a drug acting on the axis is moving loop architecture at ten thousand sites to protect one, and the therapeutic ratio implied by the published chain - a locus-specific brake with a locus-specific drug - is not what the data support.
- The refutation could itself be wrong in one specific way: a matched-percentile test asks whether the anchor is unusual, and the mechanism's actual requirement may be a threshold rather than a rank. If CTCF at this anchor has to fall below some absolute occupancy for the locus to break, then being the 58th largest faller is irrelevant and the mechanism stands untouched. Nothing in these data measures absolute occupancy, because the deposit is a ratio track with no input.
- This graph now holds three H3K9 or CTCF measurements at this element that point in different directions for the same manipulation - a broad H3K9me1 rise in RPE, a K562 element-scale pair disagreeing in sign, and a CTCF fall whose magnitude spans 0.20x to 0.50x across replicate pairings. A safety statement about a KDM3B or G9a intervention that quotes any one of them as the effect size is quoting a number with no interval, and the honest position is that neither the sign in a blood cell nor the magnitude in RPE is settled.
- Do the 57 anchors that lose MORE CTCF than KMT2A amplify or rearrange? If CTCF loss were sufficient, the top of this ranking should be a list of fragile sites, and it is not obviously one - chr4:84,566,000, chr1:85,575,200, chr17:28,626,200, chrX:17,708,200 and chr9:112,666,000 (hg19) head it. Gray's own copy-number and FISH data are in the paper; overlaying this ranking with the amplified regions it reports is the decisive follow-up and it needs no new data.
- Is there anything about the KMT2A anchor's MATERIAL properties that distinguishes it from its 1,624 strength-matched peers? Motif score and orientation, cohesin load, CpG methylation at the motif, replication timing and exonic position are all measurable from public data and not one of them has been measured for this element in this graph. The motif has still never been scanned, in four cycles of work on it.
- Would a spike-in-normalised CTCF ChIP with n >= 4 per arm separate the 3.6th from the 31.9th percentile? That is the only way to narrow the bracket this analysis leaves, and it is a wet experiment rather than a re-analysis, because the deposit contains two replicates per arm and no input file.
- E1established confidence 5 of 5: Multiple independent lines of evidence; treated as settled in the field.database
The analysis was pre-registered: design.py - specifying the anchor-calling rule, the fixed 1,000 bp window, the per-track normalisation, three matched sets (S within +/-10%, nearest 500 in S, strength decile), a split-replicate bias control, a threshold-sensitivity sweep, five preflight checks and explicit numeric bands for REFUTED, WEAKENED and SURVIVES - was written to disk before any signal value at any locus of interest was read, the only prior reads being the four CTCF files' chrom tables and header summaries and one run-length check on chr20.
analyses/q111-ctcf-anchor-matched-ranking/design.py - pre-registration written 2026-09-22 before quantification, with the refutation and support criteria stated numerically in advance · Iqbal Lab oncofusion knowledge graph 2026What this evidence cannot show
Pre-registration inside a single agent run is a weaker guarantee than a timestamped external registry: the file and the results were written by the same process within an hour of each other, and a reader has only the file's own statement that nothing was peeked at first. That statement is in the file's docstring, including the admission that metadata and one bin-size check preceded it. The design also fixed the anchor thresholds in fold units rather than as data-driven quantiles, which is what made pre-declaration possible and is also arbitrary; the T-sensitivity sweep exists because of that arbitrariness.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- A pre-declared rule that turns out to be dominated by an unanticipated mechanism - here, the split-replicate control being driven by one element's replicate disagreement rather than by population-level regression to the mean - is followed to a conclusion its author would not have chosen had they understood it in advance. Honouring the pre-declaration is the right practice and it produces a headline (31.9th percentile) that is conservative for a reason the pre-declaration did not name. Both numbers are therefore reported and the range is called a range. Iqbal Lab oncofusion knowledge graph 2026
- E2strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.dataset
Read from Gray 2023's four unique CTCF bigWigs in GSE210480 over chr1-chr22 and chrX at 200 bp resolution: 12,443 CTCF anchors called from the two siCT control tracks have a median siKDM3B/control ratio of 0.696, with 10,521 (84.6%) at or below 0.9x, 1,436 at or below 0.5x, 280 at or below 0.4x and 20 at or below 0.3x, and a monotone strength trend from decile median 0.779 to 0.615; the KMT2A exon-11 anchor (summit bin hg19 chr11:118,359,400 = GRCh38 chr11:118,488,685, baseline strength 4.92x = 91.7th percentile) has a ratio of 0.396x, which is rank 58 of 1,625 anchors matched within +/-10% of its baseline strength (3.57th percentile, matched median 0.633, 308 matched anchors at or below 0.5x), rank 22 of the nearest 500 in strength (4.40th percentile), rank 61 of 1,245 in its strength decile (4.90th percentile) and rank 258 of all 12,443 (2.07th percentile); the same pipeline reproduces the published interval figures to three decimals (0.301, 0.319, 0.401, 1.021 against 0.30, 0.32, 0.40, 1.02); and the pre-declared split-replicate bias control places it at the 31.9th percentile of 185 matched anchors with a ratio of 0.586x.
GEO GSE210480 - the four unique RPE CTCF ChIP bigWigs (GSM6431019/21/23/25) read genome-wide at 200 bp over HTTP range requests with pybigtools 0.3.0, 2026-09-22; pre-registration, code, full output and the 12,443-anchor table at analyses/q111-ctcf-anchor-matched-ranking/ (design.py, run.py, results.json, anchors.tsv) · Gray ZH, Chakraborty D, Duttweiler RR, Alekbaeva GD, Murphy SE, Chetal K, Ji F, Ferman BI, Honer MA, Wang Z, Myers C, Sun R, Kaniskan HU, Toma MM, Bondarenko EA, Santoro JN, Miranda C, Dillingham ME, Tang R, Gozani O, Jin J, Skorski T, Duy C, Lee H, Sadreyev RI, Whetstine JR · NCBI GEO (data accompanying Cell 186:4528-4545.e18) 2023What this evidence cannot show
THIS IS NOT PEAK CALLING. There is no input model, no local background and no FDR: an 'anchor' here is a local maximum of a deposited ratio track above a fixed fold cut, with a both-control-replicates reproducibility filter. The Input samples of this series carry NO supplementary file, so depth, duplicate rate and FRiP are unrecoverable and no input-based background is possible. n = 2 versus n = 2 from ONE experiment - the series lists eight CTCF accessions but they are four byte-identical files, re-verified here by HTTP HEAD - and there is no spike-in, so a global shift in ChIP efficiency between arms is absorbed into the per-track mean normalisation and would be invisible. No ENCODE or external RPE CTCF peak list was used, by design, so nothing here is cross-validated against an independently called peak set. chrY was excluded. A 200 bp bin means the summit position is a bin label, so every positional statement is +/- 100 bp; the summit was taken as the argmax bin and not as a signal-weighted centroid, which is why it is quoted as a bin start rather than a base. The ratio is a ratio of window means, so it is insensitive to a change in peak SHAPE at constant area.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- The strongest argument the other way is that a matched-percentile test may be the wrong test. What the published claim cares about is whether CTCF loss at this anchor is large enough to permit a cytogenetic event, and a 3.6th percentile among 1,625 strength-matched anchors is compatible with the anchor being functionally special even though ~57 anchors lose more. The paper's phenotype - copy gain and break-apart at KMT2A and not at MLLT1 or MLLT3 - is a real observation that this ranking does not explain, and if the top fifty-seven CTCF-losing anchors do NOT amplify or rearrange, then CTCF loss is necessary and not sufficient, and the ranking is the wrong instrument for the question rather than a refutation of the mechanism. Gray ZH et al. 2023
- E3strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.dataset
The two siCT control CTCF replicates of GSE210480 disagree two-fold at the KMT2A element: fold over each track's own chr11 mean at canonical exon 11 is 9.243 in GSM6431023 and 4.688 in GSM6431025, against siKDM3B values of 1.850 and 2.339, so the four per-replicate siKDM3B/control ratios there span 0.200 to 0.499; the same spread carries to the summit window (8.553 / 4.349) and the 1,048 bp element (6.120 / 3.213), while the whole 90 kb KMT2A gene span is flat and unchanged (1.002 / 0.987 control, ratio 0.956) and the DCAL cut point is the one interval where the replicates are not ordered consistently between arms.
GEO GSE210480 CTCF bigWigs, per-replicate interval means normalised to each track's own chr11 mean over six KMT2A intervals derived by an independently re-run Ensembl lift, 2026-09-22; p5_reproduction_of_the_published_claim block of analyses/q111-ctcf-anchor-matched-ranking/results.json · Gray ZH, Chakraborty D, Duttweiler RR, Alekbaeva GD, Murphy SE, Chetal K, Ji F, Ferman BI, Honer MA, Wang Z, Myers C, Sun R, Kaniskan HU, Toma MM, Bondarenko EA, Santoro JN, Miranda C, Dillingham ME, Tang R, Gozani O, Jin J, Skorski T, Duy C, Lee H, Sadreyev RI, Whetstine JR · NCBI GEO (data accompanying Cell 186:4528-4545.e18) 2023What this evidence cannot show
A two-fold spread between two replicates of the same arm is not by itself abnormal for a ChIP fold-enrichment at a strong site, and it does not make the mean wrong - the mean of the two is what both the paper and this analysis use, both siKDM3B replicates are below both controls at all three KMT2A intervals, and the direction is unambiguous. What it does is bound the PRECISION of the magnitude, and this is a bound derived from n = 2, so the bound itself is imprecise. No confidence interval is quoted because two observations per arm do not support one. Whether the spread reflects ChIP efficiency, sequencing depth, the fold-over-control denominator or genuine biological variation cannot be decided, because the Input samples have no deposited file.
Evidence that argues against this (1)
- This could be over-read into distrust of the published result. The rank is what changes between the primary and the split-replicate analyses, not the direction: the KMT2A anchor loses CTCF in every pairing (0.200 to 0.499 at exon 11), both siKDM3B replicates are below both controls, and the gene span 90 kb wide is flat. So the qualitative finding - CTCF falls at this anchor and not across the gene - is robust to the replicate spread, and only the claim that the fall is unusually LARGE depends on which replicate pairing is used. Iqbal Lab oncofusion knowledge graph 2026
the word 'only' fails: 308 of 1,625 strength-matched anchors also fall to <=0.5x and the matched median is 0.63x
the anchor-matched ranking that entry named as its own refuting experiment and predicted would fail
its first prediction confirmed: a continuous distribution, 1,436 anchors below 0.5x, KMT2A at the 2.07th percentile, no separated outlier
the argmax bin GRCh38 chr11:118,488,685 lands 9 bp from the independently measured summit 118,488,694
same four files, same element; this beat ranks the anchor genome-wide rather than locating it
12,443 RPE CTCF anchors ranked for occupancy loss on KDM3B depletion
siKDM3B versus control CTCF occupancy, genome-wide, in RPE
measures the terminal CTCF step of this chain genome-wide and finds it not locus-specific
the four distinct Content-Lengths re-verified by HTTP HEAD, each appearing twice across eight accessions
the element whose anchor rank this analysis computes
the per-file build check that had to pass before the ranking was computed
the design principle the ranking implements, with the four requirements it had to meet
the strength gradient measured across 12,443 anchors is what generated this hypothesis
needs the persisted 12,443-anchor table as its predictor
the off-target surface is the same 12,443-anchor distribution, read as a denominator rather than as a ranking
reuses the anchor-matched ranking design of that analysis, here for BRCA1/CBX3/CBX1 rather than for the mark
that analysis had already adopted an anchor-matched null; this generalises the reason