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Analysisstrong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.Q14-phase2-readiness

Dataset: ChEMBL chemical matter - open, quantitative, and easy to misread as a druggability score

also called ChEMBL access plan · chemical matter census · pChEMBL pull

ChEMBL is a free catalogue of every published measurement of a drug-like molecule binding a protein. It tells us instantly whether anyone has ever made chemistry against a target. The catch is that a big number can mean the chemistry was aimed at a different part of the protein entirely.

The same thing, for a scientist

ChEMBL supplies the chemical-matter axis of every dossier in this beat, and the census was run this cycle for all candidates. The counts, at pChEMBL 6 or above, span three orders of magnitude and they order the portfolio: menin 499 (best Ki 0.104 nM), menin/MLL PPI target entity 1,014, KMT2A 577, DOT1L 193, ENL 144, KAT7 98, CBX8 15, LEDGF/PSIP1 3 (best IC50 470 nM). The resource is open, key-free and trivially automatable. Its danger is interpretive rather than technical, and this beat found a live example: KMT2A's 577 potent rows would rate it a well-drugged protein, but none of them engage the CXXC domain that a phase-2 CXXC programme would target - they belong to the WDR5-MLL and menin-MLL partner programmes. Any ML model or heuristic that uses target-level ChEMBL counts as a druggability feature will inherit this error systematically.

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What question it answers

Has anyone made a potent molecule against this protein? How potent, in what assay, and is there a curated mechanism-of-action drug? For a phase-2 plan this determines whether a programme starts from an existing series, from a probe, or from nothing.

And, read carefully, it answers a second question: has anyone tried and failed? Three rows against LEDGF after a decade of published interest is either open ground or a graveyard, and ChEMBL cannot tell you which - but it can tell you the question exists.

How to reach it

Open REST, no key 1:

  • Resolve target: https://www.ebi.ac.uk/chembl/api/data/target/search?q=menin&format=json
  • Count potent rows: https://www.ebi.ac.uk/chembl/api/data/activity.json?target_chembl_id=CHEMBL1615381&pchembl_value__gte=6&limit=1 and read page_meta.total_count
  • Best affinity: add &order_by=-pchembl_value

The pchembl_value field is ChEMBL's harmonised -log10 potency across IC50, Ki, Kd and EC50, which is what makes cross-target comparison possible at all.

The census, and what it means for the portfolio
TargetChEMBL idRows at pChEMBL >=6Best reported
Menin/MLL PPICHEMBL20938611,014-
KMT2ACHEMBL1293299577-
MeninCHEMBL1615381499Ki 0.104 nM
DOT1LCHEMBL1795117193Kd 0.01 nM
ENLCHEMBL4295801144Ki 1.43 nM
KAT7CHEMBL377429998Ki 8 nM
CBX8CHEMBL323268415Kd 120 nM
PSIP1/LEDGFCHEMBL39885903IC50 470 nM

The portfolio reads off this table directly: menin and DOT1L are solved chemistry problems whose questions are elsewhere; ENL and KAT7 have real starting points; CBX8 and LEDGF have essentially nothing, and those two sit at opposite ends of the dependency ranking, which is why one is a no-go and the other is the recommended first programme.

The access barrier, and the interpretive trap

Access barrier: none. Open, key-free, safe to automate, CC BY-SA licensed.

The trap, stated so a model cannot inherit it: a ChEMBL target-level count is a count against a protein, not against a site. KMT2A's 577 rows engage WDR5 and menin interfaces, not the CXXC domain. Before any count is used as evidence for a specific pocket, the rows must be audited for which assay they came from. That audit costs a day and is a G1 item in the CXXC dossier.

A second, milder trap: ChEMBL under-represents unpublished industry chemistry, so a low count is evidence of a gap in the public record only.

Facts and figures
resourceChEMBL bioactivity database
question answeredDoes potent, published chemical matter exist against this target, and how potent?
access barrierNone. The barrier is interpretive: target-level counts are not site-level counts.
mandatory audit ruleBefore a ChEMBL count is used as evidence for a specific pocket, audit the rows for assay target site. A day of work; a G1 item wherever a count carries argumentative weight.
statusrun
result summaryCensus completed for all nine dossiers. The chemical-matter axis orders the portfolio cleanly and identifies the two extremes: LEDGF has the best dependency profile and almost no chemistry (the opportunity), CBX8 has almost no chemistry and no dependency (the no-go).
computelaptop; no GPU
census this cycle
PSIP1/LEDGF3.000PSIP1/LEDGF: 3CBX815.0CBX8: 15KAT798.0KAT7: 98ENL144.0ENL: 144DOT1L193.0DOT1L: 193menin499.0menin: 499KMT2A577.0KMT2A: 577menin/MLL PPI1,014menin/MLL PPI: 1014
access
{
  "auth": "none",
  "endpoint": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/chembl/api/data",
  "key_field": "pchembl_value (harmonised -log10 potency across IC50/Ki/Kd/EC50)",
  "licence": "CC BY-SA"
}
census this cycle — the numbers behind the chart
[
  {
    "target": "menin/MLL PPI",
    "chembl_id": "CHEMBL2093861",
    "rows_pchembl_ge_6": 1014
  },
  {
    "target": "KMT2A",
    "chembl_id": "CHEMBL1293299",
    "rows_pchembl_ge_6": 577,
    "warning": "none of these engage the CXXC domain"
  },
  {
    "target": "menin",
    "chembl_id": "CHEMBL1615381",
    "rows_pchembl_ge_6": 499,
    "best": "Ki 0.104 nM (CHEMBL5267644)"
  },
  {
    "target": "DOT1L",
    "chembl_id": "CHEMBL1795117",
    "rows_pchembl_ge_6": 193,
    "best": "Kd 0.01 nM (CHEMBL5764114)"
  },
  {
    "target": "ENL",
    "chembl_id": "CHEMBL4295801",
    "rows_pchembl_ge_6": 144,
    "best": "Ki 1.43 nM (CHEMBL4210431)"
  },
  {
    "target": "KAT7",
    "chembl_id": "CHEMBL3774299",
    "rows_pchembl_ge_6": 98,
    "best": "Ki 8 nM (CHEMBL5928174)"
  },
  {
    "target": "CBX8",
    "chembl_id": "CHEMBL3232684",
    "rows_pchembl_ge_6": 15,
    "best": "Kd 120 nM (CHEMBL4635096)"
  },
  {
    "target": "PSIP1/LEDGF",
    "chembl_id": "CHEMBL3988590",
    "rows_pchembl_ge_6": 3,
    "best": "IC50 470 nM (CHEMBL3981070)",
    "note": "all antiviral LEDGIN chemistry, no oncology series"
  }
]
How this could bite us back
  • Any ML druggability model that uses ChEMBL target-level counts as a feature will systematically rate KMT2A as tractable and LEDGF as intractable, which is exactly backwards for this project's purposes.
  • A low ChEMBL count is evidence about the public record, not about the molecule space. Concluding 'nobody tried' from three rows may mean several groups tried and published nothing.
Still open
  1. Do any of KMT2A's 577 potent rows actually assay the CXXC domain, and does an audit change the CXXC feasibility verdict?
  2. Is the LEDGF gap an untried opportunity or an unpublished graveyard, and can that be distinguished by looking at patent literature rather than ChEMBL?
  3. Should a site-level rather than target-level chemical-matter feature be constructed for this project, and what would it cost to build?
Every source behind this entry (1)
  1. E1strong confidence 4 of 5: Replicated in peer-reviewed work by more than one group.database

    The ChEMBL REST API is open and key-free, and a census run this cycle returned the following counts of activity rows at pChEMBL 6 or above: menin (CHEMBL1615381) 499 with best Ki 0.104 nM; DOT1L (CHEMBL1795117) 193 with best Kd 0.01 nM; ENL (CHEMBL4295801) 144 with best Ki 1.43 nM; KAT7 (CHEMBL3774299) 98 with best Ki 8 nM; CBX8 (CHEMBL3232684) 15 with best Kd 120 nM; PSIP1 (CHEMBL3988590) 3 with best IC50 470 nM; KMT2A (CHEMBL1293299) 577; menin/MLL PPI (CHEMBL2093861) 1,014.

    What this evidence cannot show

    All counts fetched directly this cycle. Counts mix biochemical, cellular and functional assays and include patent-derived series; a best single affinity value is an extreme of a distribution and is not representative. ChEMBL v34 or later; the exact version was not recorded from the API response.

    Evidence that argues against this (1)
    • The KMT2A row count is the counter-example to its own use: 577 potent rows against a protein whose CXXC domain has no known chemical series at all. A count against a protein is not a count against a pocket. source 2026
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